Greater Horn of Africa to experience extreme-average rainfall

Greater Horn of Africa to experience extreme-average rainfall

The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience a probability of above-average rainfall from June to September 2024.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) stated on Tuesday after the 67th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum.  It indicated that the nations in the Greater Horn of Africa would see more rainfall than usual during the June to September 2024 season.

“The areas expected to experience these above-normal conditions include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and northwestern South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions. The climate patterns in the JJAS 2024 period closely resemble those of 1998 and 2010, both of which experienced wetter-than-normal conditions over much of the region,” the statement read in part.

The climate body stated that various areas of the region, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, are predicted to experience early to normal rains. However, in Djibouti, certain regions of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and South Sudan, a delayed onset is probably anticipated.

“The temperature forecast shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania,” it said.

The ICPAC used an objective seasonal prediction approach to produce climatic forecasts for the broader Horn of Africa, by the norms and recommendations of the World Meteorological Organisation

“May 2024 initialised seasonal forecasts from 9 Global Producing Centers (GPCs) were utilized and produced to develop the June-September 2024 seasonal climate outlook,” it stated.

According to the ICPAC, “a probabilistic forecast is showing potential of above-normal, normal, or below-average rainfall was produced by analyzing the seasonal forecasts and their hind-cast data.”